KyKurmudgeon

Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo will lead off the political speechifying at Saturday’s 129th Annual Fancy Farm Picnic. He will be followed by Attorney General Jack Conway and Secretary of State Trey Grayson. All three are announced candidates for the 2010 U.S. Senate race.

They will be followed to the podium by four other announced or potential candidates: Rand Paul, Darlene Fitzgerald Price, Bill Johnson and Maurice Sweeney. Their order of appearance will be determined by coin flip.

After the Senate candidates have made their pitch, state Auditor Crit Luallen, Treasurer Todd Hollenback, state Sen. Ken Winters and state Reps. Fred Nesler and Steven Rudy will appear in that order.

All speakers will be limited to five minutes.

Thanks, as always, to Mark Wilson, chairman of the political portion of the picnic, for providing the info.

Ol’ Kurmudgeon took some time off earlier this week to compensate for spending the weekend on the job at the 129th Annual Fancy Farm Picnic. I’ll be on that long road to Western Kentucky Friday.

But I’ve already written Sunday’s column on the obvious topic of the week, and it should post automatically Sunday morning. And I’ll be blogging about the politicking (and maybe a bit about the yummy food) Saturday afternoon and evening.

If you’re also headed that way and see me at the picnic or on the streets of Paducah in the evenings, come up and say howdy. Hope to see a lot of you there.

Sunday’s column:

Republicans who shopped state Rep. Robin Webb’s story to various media outlets in recent days no doubt hoped the focus would be on the suspension of her law license, her bankruptcy and her bout with post-traumatic stress and depression.

Turns out, though, the full story behind those events from years ago establishes Webb as a sympathetic figure — a victim of domestic violence who went through some serious hell, survived it and emerged a stronger person.

But even though it may backfire on them, the fact that R’s tried to use her misfortunes against her shows how desperately they want to hold onto the 18th District Senate seat vacated by former Sen. Charlie Borders, who accepted an appointment to the Public Service Commission.

If Webb beats Dr. Jack Ditty in the Aug. 25 special election, it could confirm a couple of Republican fears.

First, a Webb win would validate Gov. Steve Beshear’s use of his appointment power to create opportunities for flipping R seats in the Senate.

More appointments could be expected. For instance, Majority Floor Leader Dan Kelly might get the judicial appointment that has been the subject of much Frankfort chatter, opening up a seat in a district where Democrats should be very competitive.

A second fear arises from the racetrack slots legislation killed in Senate committee during the June special session of the General Assembly.

Webb voted for the measure in the House and can expect financial support from the horse industry in her race against Ditty. If a Democrat backed by horse money successfully flips an R seat in Eastern Kentucky, some Republican senators from horse country who opposed racetrack slots could get a bit nervous about the prospect of the industry coming after them the next time they’re on the ballot.

Of course, a Webb victory in the 18th District is far from guaranteed. And if she does lose, some observers expect Beshear to adopt a “what’s the use” attitude about a judgeship for Kelly. I disagree.

Should Kelly run for judge next year, as some expect him to do if he doesn’t get an appointment, that would mean trying to pick up his seat in an election that might feature Secretary of State Trey Grayson at the top of the Republican ballot as a U.S. Senate candidate who can get his party’s voters to the polls.

Better for Beshear and the Democrats to try to pick up Kelly’s seat in a special election because, if they’re successful, the D winner would then run as an incumbent in 2010. And incumbents generally win.

Given recent events, one might assume all of this maneuvering over Senate seats by both parties arises from Beshear’s desire to pass expanded gambling legislation and Republicans’ desire to thwart him.

That is a factor, but there is a much bigger end game for both parties — the legislative and congressional redistricting that comes after the 2010 census.

If the Democrats can pick up a couple of seats in special elections this year, they would only need to flip two more in 2010 to retake the Senate and have total control of redistricting. But if Republicans can retain a majority, no matter how slim, they will be able to control Senate redistricting and force House Democrats to negotiate on congressional districts.

Kentucky may well lose a congressional district after the next census. If that happens, 2nd District Rep. Brett Gutherie could be the odd man out no matter who controls the Senate. He’s the newest member of the delegation. And Warren County, where he lives, is nearly surrounded by the 1st District already.

Of course, if Democrats retake the Senate, they could create a Tennessee border district stretching from Somerset to Hopkinsville, lumping Gutherie with fellow Republican Reps. Ed Whitfield and Hal Rogers. But they wouldn’t be that diabolical, would they?

Gov. Steve Beshear today appointed three new members of the Judicial Nominating Commission for the 11th Judicial Circuit and District. He also reappointed one existing member. Senate Majority Leader Dan Kelly reportedly has an interest in an open judicial seat in that circuit. Could this be the first step in the process of appointing Kelly to that seat and opening up another Republican-held Senate seat for a special election?

The three new appointees are:

Blanche C. Minor, of Mannsville, is a retired state employee.  The appointment replaces Ruth T. Hagan, whose term has expired.  Minor shall serve for a term expiring Jan. 1, 2010.

Vernon E. Bagby, of Greensburg, is a retired funeral director.  The appointment replaces Wilma D. Grigsby, whose term has expired.  Bagby shall serve for a term expiring Jan. 1, 2012.

David R. Carney, of Springfield, is a factory technician with Trim Masters, Inc.  The appointment replaces Bobby G. Curry, whose term has expired.  Carney shall serve for a term expiring Jan. 1, 2012.

The reappointed member of the commision is:

Shiela W. Newcomb, of Campbellsville, is a field business office manager for Kentucky Utilities Company.

Checking around to get different observers’ reaction to Gov. Steve Beshear’s choice of Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson, I got a response from someone who, for the purpose of this post, will be known as Anomalous (his choice) that deserves to be shared.

“Mostly, I’m baffled,” Anomalous wrote in an e-mail. “Lt. Governors should bring at least one of two things to the ticket: money or votes. I don’t see either as a result of this pairing.”

Anomalous then cited Occam’s Razor Theory, which generally holds that the simplest of two or more competing theories is the preferable one, before adding:

“Subsequently, the two theories here would be: 1) this is a brilliant political move (for reasons yet to be determined), or 2) this is an indicator of the lack of political acumen in the administration (as previously demonstrated).”

I guess it’s safe to say Anomalous is unimpressed, either by the choice or the administration.

Calling all golfers! Or at least all D golfers. The Graves County Democratic Executive Committee will co-host a golf scramble two days before the 129th Annual Fancy Farm Picnic. The scramble begins at 9 a.m. Thursday, July 30, at South Highland Country Club. Contact Romey Holmes at 270-623-8078. (Thanks to Holly Erwin for passing the info along.)

And add state Auditor Crit Luallen to the list of confirmed speakers during the political oratory portion of the Aug. 1 picnic.

At the official kickoff of his re-election campaign Monday, Gov. Steve Beshear said he will not attend this year’s 129th Annual Fancy Farm Picnic. He will be on a family vacation instead. Beshear’s new running mate, Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson, will attend the Aug. 1 picnic but will not be one of the speakers.

So far, the confirmed speakers include Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo, Secretary of State Trey Grayson, state Treasurer Todd Hollenbach, state Sen. Ken Winters, state Reps. Fred Nesler and Steven Rudy. In addition to Mongiardo and Grayson, three other candidates in the 2010 U.S. Senate race are on the program: Republicans Rand Paul (a Bowling Green ophthalmologist) and Bill Johnson (a Todd County businessman) and Democrat Darlene Fitzgerald Price (a former Customs agent).

Sunday’s column:

FRANKFORT — Robert Burns got it right about “The best laid schemes o’ mice an’ men.”

After addressing a few aspects of Beshear-Abramson 2011 in Wednesday’s column, this mouse’s scheme for Sunday involved letting Republican Sen. Charlie Borders’ resignation lead into a discussion of Democratic efforts to take back the state Senate. That, in turn, would lead to a few words about the ultimate prize at stake for both parties in next year’s Senate races: control of and/or influence over the legislative and congressional redistricting that will follow the 2010 census.

Ah, well. That scheme now must be shelved until another day.

For even though Gov. Steve Beshear’s gambit in appointing Borders to the Public Service Commission rippled Kentucky’s political waters last week, the waves kept churning around Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson, who is expected to be introduced as Beshear’s 2011 running mate Monday.

Hallway chatter in Frankfort at week’s end had some elements of labor casting about for someone capable of taking a Beshear-Abramson ticket out in the Democratic primary. Such is their dislike for the erstwhile “Mayor for Life” of the state’s largest city.

I can’t see that happening. A bloody 2011 Democratic primary would play into Republican hands come that November.

But the mere fact that this daydreaming was occurring  suggests the backwash from Beshear’s choice could be considerably greater than he anticipated.

In Louisville, the Metro Council began taking an increasing interest in the secrecy about how a controversial forgivable loan of tax dollars the Abramson administration approved for a company developing an additional venue at 4th Street Live was spent.

And two African-American members of the state House from Louisville, Reps. Darryl Owens and Reginald Meeks, released a joint statement criticizing Abramson over a comment he made to a West Virginia newspaper in which he attributed the need for merging Louisville and Jefferson County governments in part to the city getting “poorer, blacker and older.”

By week’s end, I began to sense that a Beshear-Abramson 2011 ticket does far more for Abramson — by giving him an excuse not to run for re-election next year and risk being ridden out of office on a figurative rail — than it does for Beshear.

Because I’m still left with my initial question about this match-up:

What does Abramson bring to Beshear’s table that benefits the governor?

Not votes, that’s for sure. A running mate who alienates two core Democratic constituencies — labor and African-Americans — doesn’t bring votes to the table.

No, those constituencies won’t run to embrace a Republican candidate in November 2011. But they might sit at home, which could be just as damaging.

Fund-raising help? Yeah, there is that. In the private sector, Abramson would make a consummate salesman. So, he’s ideal for making a pitch to the money crowd.

But a sitting governor who hasn’t shot himself in both feet and at least three vital organs doesn’t need help raising dough. In politics, money flows toward incumbents like water down a drainpipe.

So, unless Beshear just finds the whole money-grubbing process distasteful and wants to dump it on someone else, adding Abramson’s fund-raising skills to his own is like unloading both barrels of the shotgun on one little varmint.

Best I can tell from deciphering the late-week chatter, what Abramson really brings to Beshear’s table is a comfortable fit. The two apparently get along well, which is not always the case in such political marriages.

Now, comfort is a good thing. I enjoy comfort. I wish I could enjoy more of it than I can afford right now. And that is the thing about comfort: It comes at a cost.

So, if Beshear and Abramson want to spend four comfortable years together after November 2011, it might be wise of them to spend some uncomfortable moments between now and then, the kind of uncomfortable moments that involve making amends and trying to keep core Democratic constituencies from sitting out an election.

Fayette County Democrats will have a Fayette Friends at Fancy Farm gathering the morning of the 129th annual picnic. It starts at 10:30 a.m. (CDT) at Happy House Restaurant, 236 North 8th Street, Mayfield.

Republican U.S. Sen Jim Bunning, the Hall of Fame pitcher, continues to lob the soft stuff up to the plate in his re-election fund-raising game. For the quarter that ended June 30, Bunning raised just $285,000. Incumbent U.S. senators should be able to generate that kind of cash with one decent event.

But Bunning wasn’t the only Senate candidate who had so-so success last quarter. Democratic Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo reported raising $303,000 for the three-month period, less than one-quarter of the $1.3 million raised by his main primary opponent, Attorney General Jack Conway.

Bunning’s and Mongiardo’s financial reports won’t stop the growing rumors that each will find some way to exit the race, more or less gracefully. In Mongiardo’s case, I don’t buy the rumor - at least not yet. With Gov. Steve Beshear set to introduce Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson as his 2011 running mate next week (Monday, I’m hearing now), Mongiardo has no apparent place to land. Besides, he’s been preparing for this race since his narrow defeat by Bunning in 2004. So, I think he stays in. But he can’t keep raising $1 to every $4 raised by Conway. That kind of disparity will turn Conway into a clear front-runner.

Bunning, however, is another story. He encouraged his friend and protege, Secretary of State Trey Grayson, to set up and exploratory committee. Grayson did, and and more than doubled up Bunning’s fund-raising efforts last quarter with $603,000. That suggests Grayson may step in to relieve Bunning before this campaign ends. Of course, Bunning’s just stubborn enough to stay in the game even after encouraging Grayson. It wouldn’t be the first example of odd behavior on this part.