KyKurmudgeon

Sunday’s column:

FRANKFORT — In year-end interviews last week, Gov. Steve Beshear told members of the media that expanded gambling is on the “back burner” heading into the 2009 General Assembly session. He should move it to a front burner.

Sure, the little matter of a projected $456.1 million revenue shortfall for the current budget year, which is almost half over, preoccupies Beshear at the moment. And the earliest a constitutional amendment, the only politically viable way of authorizing expanded gambling, could be approved is November 2010, which means it won’t do diddly to solve Kentucky’s short-term revenue woes.

But one of the talents we expect in our governors — indeed, in all our political leaders — is the ability to multi-task, to think and plan in terms of both immediate crises and long-term needs. And nothing about the rough patch the state is going through at the moment undercuts the two compelling arguments for legalizing casino gambling: to capture for our own treasury the hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue Kentuckians are contributing to bordering states by gambling at their casinos and racinos, and to keep Kentucky’s signature racing industry competitive with its counterparts in states where purses and breeders’ incentives are supplemented with the profits from expanded gambling.

If anything, a recession that evokes comparisons to the Great Depression lends urgency to the arguments for expanded gambling. All the experts and all the indicators suggest our economy hasn’t bottomed out yet. If the worst is yet to come, Kentucky’s revenue problems will extend beyond one budget year and even beyond one two-year budget cycle. So, settling for a short-term fix to the present crisis would be, well, shortsighted. What’s needed is both a bandage to stop the bleeding now and a stable new source of revenue to help keep it from recurring.

While the oft-discussed increase in the cigarette tax can serve as a bandage of sorts, it is not a long-term fix. Over the course of a full year, a 70-cent increase per pack would produce about a third of the revenue needed to offset the current $456.1 million shortfall.

Expanded gambling wouldn’t completely cure the state’s perennial budget problems either. A real cure won’t be found until lawmakers tie the state’s tax structure to the service sector of the economy, the sector more resistant to recessions.

But the $300 million to $500 million in revenue legalized casinos could start generating as early as 2011, when the economy likely still will be recovering from its current malaise, would greatly expand the bandage applied by an increased cigarette tax and would be a more stable source of future revenue.

So, why push a casino amendment in 2009 if it can’t be on the ballot until 2010 and won’t start generating revenue (assuming voters approve it) until 2011?

Because it chances of passing the General Assembly will be better in the upcoming General Assembly that you could expect them to be in the last two sessions of Beshear’s first term.

If the amendment is put on hold until 2010, as some in the Thoroughbred industry apparently prefer, it runs up against election-year politics. Specifically, lawmakers would be asked to cast a tough vote in a year when half of the Senate seats and all of the House seats are on the ballot.

It should be noted that one of the seats on the ballot next year currently is occupied by Senate President David Williams. Who really thinks he’s going to let a casino amendment through the upper chamber while running for re-election?

The following year, 2011, is a gubernatorial election year. Assuming Beshear seeks a second term, who really thinks the Republican-controlled Senate will give him a victory during his re-election campaign?

Getting a casino amendment through the legislature, particularly the Senate, will be problematic anytime. But with no scheduled elections generating an increase in the normal level of political posturing during legislative sessions, 2009 offers Beshear his best chance to deliver on his main campaign issue.

This is no time to be timid. With the state in a revenue crisis, this is a time for a governor to lead for the short term (cigarette taxes) and the longer term (casino gambling).

After two weeks of desk duties at the Herald-Leader mother ship and another week of vacation during which I managed to do a fair imitation of a turkey by getting stuffed on Thanksgiving Day, I’m back, at least for a couple of weeks. Now, if someone would please remind me what a person does with a blog, I can get back to work. (Just kidding, sorta.) Anyway, let’s ease back into the routine with a few observations about some of the news from the last three weeks.

1. You know, for people who get and keep their jobs through what are essentially popularity contests, politicians can be really dense about appreciating the public perception created by their own actions. One example of that in recent weeks was Gov. Steve Beshear signing off on a 25 percent bump in salary (from $80,000 to $100,000) for a position he tapped friend and campaign donor Ralph Coldiron to fill in the Department of Homeland Security. At the time, Beshear knew the state was facing a projected shortfall in revenue for this fiscal year. He didn’t know the shortfall was going to be as much as the $456 million now estimated by the Consensus Forecasting Group, but he knew it was going to be significant. He also knew he was going to have to ask state agencies to cut back on funding the services they provide the public and/or ask Kentuckians to pay higher taxes. Under those circumstances, approving a salary increase for a position you’re naming a buddy to fill is, well, not very smart. It needlessly undermines the message Beshear will be delivering to the public and legislature over the next few weeks as he outlines his plan for dealing with a serious budget shortfall. A governor who plans to ask others to tighten their belts and make do with less needs to set the example with his own appointees.

2. Of course, Beshear is not alone among elected officials in Frankfort in being fiscally insensitive. A couple of recent stories (one in the Herald-Leader and another in The Courier-Journal) illustrated how profligate state lawmakers can be when traveling on the public dime. John Cheves’ story in the Herald-Leader dealt with the state police who provide security during out-of-state trips by Senate President David Williams and House Speaker Jody Richards, a practice that cost taxpayers $12,000 in just one month last summer. The Courier-Journal story by Tom Loftus reported that lawmakers in general spent $1.3 million of the public’s money on out-of-state travel between Jan. 1, 2006 and Oct. 31, 2008. Obviously, some travel by lawmakers to conferences and conventions can be beneficial since it can expand their knowledge about dealing with issues all states face. But state Sen. Tom Buford, R-Nicholasville, traved at public expense an average of more than 40 days a year during that time frame. Others among the General Assembly top frequent flyers averaged 25-30 days a year during that period. Considering the state’s budget woes in recent years, that’s excessive. And I can think of no legitimate justification for the state police escort Williams and Richards have been getting in their travels. After all, outside of Kentucky, who would know either man or what positions they hold well enough to target them for harm?

3. It would be way, way dumb of House Democratic leaders if they try to “steal” the 26th District seat from Rep. Tim Moore, R-Elizabethtown. Moore narrowly won re-election over Democratic challenger Mike Weaver, who held the seat prior to his unsuccessful 2006 campaign for the 2nd District U.S. House seat. Weaver and D leaders have discussed the possibility of contesting Moore’s election when the General Assembly convenes next month because of a malfuntion in a voting machine at one precinct. Such a contest would be settled by a vote of the full House, where D’s hold a sizeable majority. But Weaver and D’s leaders should end those discussions and accept defeat in the 26th District. Otherwise, they’ll only wind up looking as foolishly arrogant and petty as Williams and Senate R leaders looked when they tried to seat Dana Seum Stephenson despite court rulings that she failed the constitution’s residency requirement for serving as a state senator.

Hope you all had a spectacular Turkey Day.

I’m taking off for Turkey Week. Should be back Monday, Dec. 1 in a semi-normal routine. Hope I remember how to write columns after spending most of my time the last couple of weeks editing other folks’ stuff.

Happy Turkey Day to all!

1. It appears some Republicans want Mike Duncan, the chairman of the party’s national committee, to take the fall for the beating they took at the polls Nov. 4. Several reports indicate the Inez banker may have competition, perhaps from former House Speaker Newt Gingrich among others, if he seeks re-election in January. But it seems a bit odd to me that Duncan would become the scapegoat. After all, the R’s got their butts kicked because of President Bush’s disastrous policies on the economy and in Iraq, not because of the way Duncan ran the party machine. Any R who believes otherwise is in a serious state of denial. If there is any Kentuckian who should be blamed for the beating R’s took on a national basis, it is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has been Bush’s enabler in chief on all those disastrous policies.

2. When the Consensus Forecasting Group meets Friday, expect an even gloomier revenue projection than the $294 million shortfall Gov. Steve Beshear’s budget analysts predicted a couple of weeks ago. Expect that gloomier forecast to cause Beshear and House Democratic leaders to suggest an increase in the cigarette tax. But since the election didn’t produce any change in Frankfort’s political dynamics, don’t expect any increase to be passed because President David  Williams still mans his roadblock in the Senate.

3. A story in The Courier-Journal Tuesday reported that the Horseshoe casino (formerly Caesar’s) has paid $740 million in Indiana state taxes in its 10 years of existence. Some $215 million of that went back to Harrison County, where the casino is located. In addition, the county got another $100 million in profit-sharing. One Indiana casino contributed a total of $840 million to the public bank accounts in 10 years. Think what nine casinos could be contributing to Kentucky’s public bank accounts. But don’t think too hard about it right now, not with the roadblock still functioning in the Senate.

Shortly after the Democratic slate of Steve Beshear and Daniel Mongiardo won the 2007 gubernatorial election, Senate President David Williams sent Mongiardo a letter urging him to resign from the state Senate so a special election to fill his 30th District seat could be held at the earliest possible time. Instead, Mongiardo waited until Dec. 11, Inauguration Day, to resign. Mongiardo’s decision prompted Williams to complain at the time, “It now will be late January at the earliest before his replacement can join the Senate, and that person will have no preparation for the job.” Williams also said a special election during the session “will undoubtedly politicize the beginning of the session and distract members from the bipartisan cooperation” Beshear and Mongiardo had been publicly promoting.

However, Williams has been strangely silent on the subject of quick special elections to fill vacant seats since Republican state Sen. Brett Guthrie won the 2nd District U.S. House race. If he has called on Guthrie to resign to facilitate that process, it was not done publicly. And if Guthrie waits until Congress convenes Jan. 6 to resign his state Senate seat, his replacement cannot be chosen before Feb. 10, 10 days into the 2009 short session of the General Assembly.

A special election cannot be called until the seat is vacant, and the law says the election can’t be held until at least 35 days after the issuance of the call (by the governor if the legislature is not in session or by the presiding officer of the chamber if the legislature is in session). Anyone elected Feb. 10 probably couldn’t be sworn in until Feb. 12 or 13, due to the process of certifying the election.

That means voters of the 32nd Senate District would be without representation during the four-day organizational session in early January, any special session that might be held between the organizational days and the main portion of the session that convenes Feb. 5 and the first nine days of the main session. Even with no special session, the district would be without representation for 12 to 13 days of a 30-day session.

And I haven’t even mentioned Williams’ concern about a special election politicizing the opening days of the session. But I’m not too concerned about that, because they’re going to be politicized anyway.

But it’s sure is strange that, after the concerns he voiced so forcefully when it was a Democratic seat up for grabs last year, Williams remains so silent this year when it’s a Republican seat up for grabs.

For the next two weeks, I once again will be filling in for absent colleagues on the now downsized H-L editorial board. I hope to keep the KyKurmudgeon blog active, but will not be writing columns during this time.

Sunday’s column:

FRANKFORT — Leftovers from a transformational national election that bypassed Kentucky:

After Bruce Lunsford gave Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell a scare in the closing days of the fall campaign, some Democrats may be playing the “what if” game.

As in: What if U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler or state Auditor Crit Luallen had been the party’s candidate instead of the baggage-laden multimillionaire Louisville businessman?

But Democrats who let their minds wander in that direction ignore several important points.

At the time Chandler and Luallen opted out of the race last year, McConnell appeared farstronger than the vulnerable incumbent he became down the stretch.

And even though both Chandler and Luallen could have expected considerable help from national Democrats, it’s questionable they could have raised the kind of money Lunsford pulled out of his pockets and invested in his own campaign. It was that investment up front that put Lunsford in position to be competitive when the collapse of the financial markets put McConnell at greatest risk.

Of course, if this year’s events could have been foreseen, national Democratic organizations likely would have made sure either Chandler or Luallen had the kind of big bucks Lunsford spent on his own.

And under those circumstances, either of the two would have had a better shot at taking McConnell down because each feels far more love from the Democratic base than Lunsford does.

But absent that foresight, Chandler or Luallen might not have been able to make the kind of up-front investment necessary to be in position to take advantage when McConnell became vulnerable.

                                                         * * *

All of that said, if Lunsford had won, it would have been in spite of the campaign he ran rather than because of it.

From the outset, his was a campaign of blown opportunities, starting with his failure to make Issue No. 1 of his pitch to the public McConnell’s joined-at-the-hip relationship with the most unpopular American president in the history of polling.

Lunsford should have pounded that issue on the stump and in his ads every day from Day One. He didn’t do a good job of that.

Then, when the financial markets tanked, McConnell’s vote for a $700 million bailout should have become Issue No. 2, again pounded into the public’s consciousness on a daily basis.

Even McConnell acknowledged, in a post-election media conference call, “It was the biggest issue in the country, but it was not the biggest issue in (Kentucky) people making up their minds.”

Of course, it wasn’t — because Lunsford never exploited it. Instead, he hemmed and hawed for weeks before taking a semi-firm position on the bailout.

Finally, when McConnell’s buddy Sen. Ted Stevens was convicted on seven felony counts, Issue No. 3  pounded on a daily basis should have been the numerous summer vacations McConnell and his wife Elaine Chao spent visiting Stevens in Alaska.

Lunsford’s response consisted of about three e-mail statements to the media. If a single ad aired on the McConnell-Stevens connection, I didn’t see it.

Three easily exploitable issues became three big-time blown opportunities.

In a wrap-up of Sen. Barack Obama’s successful presidential campaign, Sharon Cohen of the Associated Press described the scene in the middle of the September financial collapse when Obama staffers heard Sen. John McCain utter words he must certainly now regret: “The fundamentals of our economy are strong.”

Campaign manager David Plouffe and communications director Dan Pfeiffer knew immediately what they had, and the ad folks were at work within an hour on a spot that aired the next day depicting McCain as out of touch.

That’s the difference between winning campaigns and losing ones. Winners have instant “Aha!” moments. Losers never have them at all.

                                                        * * *

One of the bigger losers in Tuesday’s election wasn’t even on the ballot.

Kentucky Democrats underperformed at all levels, while the state’s Republicans defended well in a year when their national counterparts were taking their lumps. Nowhere was that more evident than in state legislative races.

In the federal races, a Democratic win would have been considered an upset. But the Democrats expected to pick up one Senate seat and had an outside chance at another. And they expected to add a handful of seats to their House majority.

Instead, the Senate numbers didn’t change at all. And House Democrats had a net pickup of one.

Since Gov. Steve Beshear’s party was unable to budge the numbers at all in an uncooperative Republican-controlled Senate, he has to be considered one of Tuesday’s losers.

                                                         * * *

Carroll Hubbard, the former U.S. representative who was convicted on several felony counts and sentenced to three years in prison in the 1990s, needs to give up his quest for political redemption. It ain’t gonna happen.

Exit polls showed a substantial majority of voters thought Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is unqualified to be president, while a larger majority felt Sen. Joe Biden is qualified. Instead of helping Sen. John McCain, she proved to be a drag on his campaign. He made a rash choice in the selection of his running mate, and it cost him.

This public recognition that Palin isn’t up to the nation’s top job should give pause to those Republicans who have begun suffering from the delusion that she is the future of their party.

Both multimillionaire Bruce Lunsford and former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup now qualify as three-time losers.

This time, at least, Lunsford got closer than he has in the past, losing to incumbent Sen. Mitch McConnell by 6 percentage points. But Lunsford got close in spite of, not because of, the campaign he ran. It left a lot to be desired. I am still stunned that, over the last week of the campaign, the Lunsford camp didn’t air ads about the close ties McConnell has to the recently convicted Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska.

In a year that approached a perfect storm for Democrats nationwide, Northup never had a chance of regaining her former seat from Rep. John Yarmuth in the most progressive congressional district in the state.

Lunsford’s desire to win an election is evidenced by the millions of his own wealth he committed to the three losing campaigns. So, he may try again. But it’s doubtful he will ever have a better chance than he had against McConnell.

Three losses in three straight years probably ends Northup’s political career.

A majority of Americans voted for change Tuesday, but not a majority of Kentuckians. Voters in Kentucky voted for more of the same. They voted more of the same in the presidential race by backing John McCain. They voted for more of the same in the U.S. House and Senate, and more of the same in the state House and Senate. Sure, a couple of state House seats flipped parties and the Democrats added one vote to its majority. But that still amounts to more of the same.

As a result, Kentuckians will get more of the same from the folks they sent to Washington and Frankfort. In Washington, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s ability to obstruct progress may be tempered a bit by increased Democratic majority. But the lack of change in Frankfort suggests continued dysfunction in the General Assembly. Who can be happy about that?