KyKurmudgeon

To see a portion of the speech Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell gave in praise of Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens, who has now been convicted on seven felony counts, click: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjA_4Pdi5Bk

Sunday’s column:

FRANKFORT — This and that while wondering whether Nov. 4 will produce a transformational election:

On a national level, the election of America’s first president of color would be transformational in and of itself.

But the significance of such an election outcome would be enhanced if it marked a long-term change of course for the nation. In that event, it might one day be looked back upon as the end of the Ronald Reagan era in American politics.

At the very least, it might be seen as the point at which the nation turned away from the fiscally foolish neo-con agenda of tax cuts for the rich, massive deficit spending and deregulation of everything in the marketplace.

On the state level, the election could transform the political landscape if it marks the end of the Mitch McConnell era.

After watching him rise to the level of dominating Kentucky politics and maintain that dominance for so long, it’s difficult to imagine him losing to anyone, much less a candidate with Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford’s baggage. But all the recent independent polls suggest it is a very real possibility.

Those polls contain some troubling signs for McConnell.

For instance, the Herald-Leader/WKYT Kentucky Poll gave McConnell a lead of just four points, 47 percent to Lunsford’s 43 percent. But the same poll gave Sen. John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate, a 16-point lead over Democratic Sen. Barack Obama. No doubt, the color of Obama’s skin is a factor in McCain’s lead.

But whatever accounts for the wide margin in the race at the top of the ticket, these disparate findings suggest that Kentucky voters may be willing to  hold McConnell accountable for enabling the Bush administration in all its missteps, including the misguided war in Iraq, while giving a pass to the presidential candidate who would continue President Bush’s failed policies.

McConnell also can find cause for concern in the poll results from Western Kentucky.

In recent elections, that has been a fertile region for Republicans. In 2004, for instance, then-state Sen. Daniel Mongiardo built a lead over U.S. Jim Bunning  in early returns from the eastern part of the state only to see it evaporate as the votes in Western Kentucky were counted.

In the Herald-Leader/WKYT survey, McConnell led Lunsford by just six points, 48 percent to 42 percent, in the 1st Congressional District. That’s statistically within the margin of error.

So, if Lunsford were to emulate Mongiardo in building an early lead, McConnell may have more trouble than Bunning did in snatching victory from the jaws of defeat in Western Kentucky.

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At the urging of the Bush administration, Congress recently voted to nationalize the nation’s financial markets.

OK, that’s an overstatement. But it’s overstated to stress a point, that point being that McCain voted (as did Obama) for the biggest example of government socialism this nation has ever seen — and, it is to be hoped, ever will see.

Yet McCain has the gall to point a finger at Obama and accuse him of being a “socialist” who wants to use taxes to redistribute wealth.

First, all tax policies redistribute wealth one way or the other. McCain just favors a tax policy that redistributes it up the income ladder rather than down.

Second, after being complicit in redistributing more than $1 trillion of this nation’s wealth to Wall Street, McCain needs to look in the mirror, say hello to his own inner socialist and stop embarrassing himself.

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It should surprise no one that the $150,000 extreme makeover Gov. Sarah Palin and her family received after she joined the McCain ticket was paid for by others — in this case, the Republican Party.

After all, Palin bills the state of Alaska for her children’s travel expenses and collects per diem for the many days she spends at home in Wasilla.

All of which makes one wonder: Is she the hockey mom she claims to be or a welfare mom?

1. Every recent independent poll indicatesthe race between Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Louisville businessman Bruce Lunsford is a dead heat. A SurveyUSA poll released today had tied at 48 percent each. A Research 2000 poll released earlier this week gave McConnell a 4-point lead (46-42). With the margin of error taken into account, that’s a virtual tie as well. And last month’s Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll had the candidates tied at 41 percent. Lunsford should get a bit of a bump later this week when former President Bill Clinton, who remains popular in this state, makes a couple of Western Kentucky appearances on his behalf. Ultimately, though, Lunsford has to make his own case to Kentucky voters if he wants to pull one of the biggest political upsets this state has seen. His ability to dip into his own deep pockets to self-finance a lot of this campaign got him close. The collapse of the nation’s financial system drew him dead even. Over the final two weeks of the campaign, he has to close the sale with a message that makes a specific case for change.

2. Sen. Barack Obama goes into “red state” Missouri and pulls a crowd of 100,000. Sen. John McCain visits a few days later and draws about 2,000. Small wonder that McCain is appearing increasingly cranky as this race progresses. By the time it’s over, he may set a new standard for that word.

CORRECTION: This post originally said Sarah Palin was once a member of the Alaska Independence Party, which was reported by The New York Times. The Times later reported that it was Todd Palin, not his wife, who was once a member of that party.

You’re Sen. John McCain, and you’re running for president. One of your biggest criticisms of your Democratic opponent, Sen. Barack Obama, is his lack of experience. So, what do you do? You ask American voters to put Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin a heartbeat away from the Oval Office. And by comparison to Palin’s lack of experience, Obama now looks like Winston Churchill.

Worse, you apparently made this selection after the worst vetting job this side of Thomas Eagleton’s shock treatments.

In another previous life, she supported Sen. Ted Stevens infamous Bridge to Nowhere, which she now claims to have been instrumental in stopping. And that big-time reputation for taking on the good ol’ boys of Alaskan politics doesn’t gibe with the fact that she once worked for a 527 group organized by the goodest ol’ boy of all, none other than Stevens himself.

Then, there is that messy little investigation into whether Palin fired the state’s public safety commissoner after he refused to be pressured by her staff, her family and herself into firing her ex-brother-in-law, a state trooper.

Finally, it turns out Palin’s abstinence only approach to sex education didn’t take on her teenage daughter Bristol, who is now with child.

Yep, worst vetting job since Eagleton. And the rapidity with which she is becoming a national joke may well mean that she soon joins him in the history book.

By the way, if you’re McCain, in addition to criticizing Obama’s lack of experience, you also have been making a big deal out of questioning his judgment. Well, the New York Times News Service reported that your vetting team didn’t even arrive in Alaska until Thursday, one day before you tried to seize the momentum after the Democratic National Convention by announcing her as your running mate.

One day - if that - of vetting someone you want to be a heartbeat from the Oval Office? Now, that’s some rush to judgment.

Today's column:

FRANKFORT — This and that, the lazy, hazy, crazy days of summer edition:

As Gov. Steve Beshear toured the state in recent weeks, he continued to tout his proposals to raise the cigarette tax 70 cents a pack and to let voters decide whether Kentucky needs casino gambling and the hundreds of millions of dollars in additional revenue that would come with it.

He has plenty of reason to keep making that pitch. The two-year budget that went into effect July 1 underfunds a variety of critical services and is shakily balanced at best.

It could come unbalanced very quickly for a variety of reasons, starting with the economy. If it continues its downward trend, the revenue estimates used to craft this budget could prove excessively rosy.

Already, the assumed savings from the predicted mass retirement of state workers looks overly optimistic.

If the wads of chewing gum holding this budget together do start to come unglued in the next few months, or if the impact of the deep cuts in services prove so painful that even the Republican-controlled Senate recognizes the need for more revenue (yeah, I know, that’s unlikely), a special legislative session after the November election might be the most practical way to deal with the cigarette tax issue.

It takes a super majority (60 percent of the members of each chamber) to pass a revenue-raising measure in a 30-day short session of the General Assembly, such as the one coming up in 2009. No such super majority would be required in a special session.

On the other hand, a constitutional amendment on gambling might have a better chance in 2009 than it did this year (or will have in 2010) simply because dealing with it in an odd year puts some distance between lawmakers’ votes on the issue and the time they face re-election.

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In Northern Kentucky last week, one impact of those deep cuts in services was the release of two men accused of violent felonies.

A story by Kevin Kelly on the Kentucky Enquirer’s nky.com Web site said Campbell District Judge Gregory Popovich released the two to illustrate the consequences of a $2.3 million cut in funding for the Department of Public Advocacy that has made it difficult for the agency to hire private lawyers in cases where public defenders would have a conflict representing co-defendants.

“I am releasing someone charged with attempted murder in a drug deal, a drug war where the other person allegedly started the war,” Popovich was quoted as saying. “I’m releasing them into our streets. Please be careful. Hope that nobody else gets hurt. But remember the fight is between the public advocacy office and the state Senate who don’t seem to care enough to protect us. They should put that stuff aside and protect us.”

Wonder how many Democrats challenging incumbent Republican senators will repeatedly remind voters of this incident over the next couple of months?

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Am I the only cynic who believes the recent decline in oil and gas prices is the oil industry’s attempt to influence the November election by reducing the pain somewhat so Americans will feel less anger toward a Republican administration?

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has confirmed that he will speak at the 128th Fancy Farm Picnic Aug. 2, according to Mark Wilson, chairman for the political portion of the event.

State Treasurer Todd Hollenbach, state Rep. Steven Rudy and his opponent for the 1st District House seat, Mike Lawrence, have also confirmed that they will speak since my July 9 post (below) on the subject.

Attorney General Jack Conway will attend, but will not speak. Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer will not be there due to an out-of-town wedding in the family.

No word yet from the two presidential candidates from the major parties, although Wilson indicated he expected a decision from Sen. Barack Obama within a few days.

Conventional wisdom holds that Kentucky is a "red state" and, because it is supposedly a lock for Republican Sen. John McCain, we won't see much of either candidate in the fall campaign. According to this line of thought, Democratic Sen. Barack Obama might fly into Louisville for a fund-raiser that adds a few million dollars to his campaign account. Then, we probably would never see him again. And McCain might make a few more stops than Obama, but not many more.

But the current Newsweekcontains an interesting article by Richard Wolffe describing Democratic plans for a "50-state strategy" designed to use Obama's money superiority to force McCain to play defense even in his stronghold states, while also helping Democratic congressional candidates in those states.

With first-term Democratic Rep. John Yarmuth (an early Obama supporter) facing a challenge from his predecessor Anne Northup in the 3rd Congressional District (where Obama should do well), Kentucky might be a good fit for the D's strategy of forcing McCain to play defense while helping out a congressional supporter. If it does, the state's political junkies could get more entertainment than we anticipated in the fall campaign.

Catching up on a few items:

1. For the first time in 20 years, there will not be a Bush or a Clinton at the top of a major party's' presidential ticket. The times really are a-changin', as Dylan might say.

2. Former Gov. Paul Patton deserves a seat on the Council on Postsecondary Education. He wrote the book on higher education reform in Kentucky, proposing the legislation enacted during a 1997 special session and using the force of his political will to overcome opposition from some entrenched higher education interests. He would be an excellent addition to a panel that has seen a bit of turmoil lately. His knowledge and insight might be particularly beneficial in evaluating applicants during the search for a new permanent president.

3. Former Gov. Ernie Fletcher added insult to injury when he chose Diversity Day in 2006 to sign an order removing a ban on discrimination due to sexual orientation that Patton had implemented in state government. Gov. Steve Beshear did the right thing Monday when he issued an executive order reinstating anti-discrimination protections for gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender state workers. They deserve the same respect afforded to other employees.

4. It's too bad the state can't figure out a way to repo Education Commissioner John Draud's costly ride, the one pimped out with $13,000 worth of extras that he now remembers he did know about. But then, that's small change compared to the $448,997 low bid submitted for the next round of pimping out the Senate's digs. And that doesn't include the $400,000 in rent the state will pay to house the agencies kicked out of the Capitol Annex so none of our senators will have to suffer the indignity of being stuck in that "rather small office" Senate President David Williams mentioned recently.

In response to New York Gov. David Paterson's decision to have state agencies recognize gay marriages performed where such unions are legal, the Associated Press quoted Richard E. Barnes, executive director of the New York State Catholic Conference, as saying, "The definition of marriage predates recorded history."

Don't you just love it when know-it-alls say such dumb things?

Sunday's column:

FRANKFORT — A few days after the 2007 primary election, Democratic leaders staged a unity rally at the party’s state headquarters.

All the losing gubernatorial candidates showed up in a demonstration of support for the nominee, everyone made nice to each other, and Steve Beshear went on to an easy win over Republican incumbent Gov. Ernie Fletcher in the fall.

Friday, Kentucky Democrats staged another post-primary unity rally. Once again, it was a verbal hug-fest.

“Today, there are no differences,” said Greg Fischer, who ran second to Bruce Lunsford in a U.S. Senate primary that got a tad nasty at times. “Today, we’re all Democrats unified in one common purpose: to put a Democrat in the White House and to put a Democrat in the United States Senate.”

Lunsford responded in kind, saying Fischer “has a great future if he decides to stay in the game.”

Lunsford and party leaders outlined the case against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, which largely consists of being joined at the hip with President Bush during a period of time when the United States has made a handbasket visit to a very hot place.

It’s a message that should resonate with folks who are fed up with having American troops die in an ill-advised war and who have been battered financially by $4-per-gallon gas prices and a tanked economy that includes a lending crisis and a slump in the housing market.

And Lunsford has a gift for making the case against the man he calls “Sir Mitchell.”

At one point Friday, he flipped one of McConnell’s ads against him by noting that “someone who had health care that helped him get from polio to an all-star Little Leaguer voted against … health care for children in this country.” Later, he pointed out that “a guy who has consistently voted for a war in Iraq has consistently voted against the warriors.”

Whether these are his own lines or some that have been crafted for him, they are the kind that hit home in 30-second sound-bite fashion.

But this isn’t 2007, and even a unified Democratic Party will have a way tougher time taking down Mitch McConnell than it did taking down a weakened governor who had been indicted in a hiring scandal.

For one thing, Lunsford comes with exploitable baggage, as some of Fischer’s campaign ads reminded us. And although most of the party’s leaders appear to be united behind him in this race, it is less certain that Democratic voters have forgiven him completely for endorsing Fletcher in the 2003 general election.
However, Lunsford’s baggage may be the least of Kentucky Democrats’ worries this year.

Tuesday’s 43 percent turnout by Democratic voters indicates a high level of motivation within the party. But nearly two-thirds of them voted for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the presidential primary, even though national pundits were already ceding the nomination to Sen. Barack Obama.

Exit polls conducted that day and a recent Herald-Leader/WKYT Kentucky Poll found that race matters to about 20 percent of the state’s Democratic voters. And that just accounts for the ones who would admit to discriminatory thoughts.

Such numbers provide a sad commentary on this state, but they also represent an unfortunate reality for Kentucky Democrats to deal with if Obama is at the top of the party’s ticket this fall.

Even if Clinton were to catch lightning in a bottle, I’m not sure things would get much better for Democrats. I suspect a substantial number of folks who voted for her because of Obama’s race did so because their racism trumped their sexism in the primary, and thus would vote for Sen. John McCain because of her gender in the general election.

Finally, there is McConnell himself, a master of fund-raising and nasty campaigns that go straight for the jugular.

So, no matter how united Democratic leaders may be, turning the Bluegrass State blue will be tough task this year.