KyKurmudgeon

Sunday’s column:

FRANKFORT — Robert Burns got it right about “The best laid schemes o’ mice an’ men.”

After addressing a few aspects of Beshear-Abramson 2011 in Wednesday’s column, this mouse’s scheme for Sunday involved letting Republican Sen. Charlie Borders’ resignation lead into a discussion of Democratic efforts to take back the state Senate. That, in turn, would lead to a few words about the ultimate prize at stake for both parties in next year’s Senate races: control of and/or influence over the legislative and congressional redistricting that will follow the 2010 census.

Ah, well. That scheme now must be shelved until another day.

For even though Gov. Steve Beshear’s gambit in appointing Borders to the Public Service Commission rippled Kentucky’s political waters last week, the waves kept churning around Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson, who is expected to be introduced as Beshear’s 2011 running mate Monday.

Hallway chatter in Frankfort at week’s end had some elements of labor casting about for someone capable of taking a Beshear-Abramson ticket out in the Democratic primary. Such is their dislike for the erstwhile “Mayor for Life” of the state’s largest city.

I can’t see that happening. A bloody 2011 Democratic primary would play into Republican hands come that November.

But the mere fact that this daydreaming was occurring  suggests the backwash from Beshear’s choice could be considerably greater than he anticipated.

In Louisville, the Metro Council began taking an increasing interest in the secrecy about how a controversial forgivable loan of tax dollars the Abramson administration approved for a company developing an additional venue at 4th Street Live was spent.

And two African-American members of the state House from Louisville, Reps. Darryl Owens and Reginald Meeks, released a joint statement criticizing Abramson over a comment he made to a West Virginia newspaper in which he attributed the need for merging Louisville and Jefferson County governments in part to the city getting “poorer, blacker and older.”

By week’s end, I began to sense that a Beshear-Abramson 2011 ticket does far more for Abramson — by giving him an excuse not to run for re-election next year and risk being ridden out of office on a figurative rail — than it does for Beshear.

Because I’m still left with my initial question about this match-up:

What does Abramson bring to Beshear’s table that benefits the governor?

Not votes, that’s for sure. A running mate who alienates two core Democratic constituencies — labor and African-Americans — doesn’t bring votes to the table.

No, those constituencies won’t run to embrace a Republican candidate in November 2011. But they might sit at home, which could be just as damaging.

Fund-raising help? Yeah, there is that. In the private sector, Abramson would make a consummate salesman. So, he’s ideal for making a pitch to the money crowd.

But a sitting governor who hasn’t shot himself in both feet and at least three vital organs doesn’t need help raising dough. In politics, money flows toward incumbents like water down a drainpipe.

So, unless Beshear just finds the whole money-grubbing process distasteful and wants to dump it on someone else, adding Abramson’s fund-raising skills to his own is like unloading both barrels of the shotgun on one little varmint.

Best I can tell from deciphering the late-week chatter, what Abramson really brings to Beshear’s table is a comfortable fit. The two apparently get along well, which is not always the case in such political marriages.

Now, comfort is a good thing. I enjoy comfort. I wish I could enjoy more of it than I can afford right now. And that is the thing about comfort: It comes at a cost.

So, if Beshear and Abramson want to spend four comfortable years together after November 2011, it might be wise of them to spend some uncomfortable moments between now and then, the kind of uncomfortable moments that involve making amends and trying to keep core Democratic constituencies from sitting out an election.

Wednesday’s column:

By going public with their objections to the selection of Jerry Abramson as Gov. Steve Beshear’s 2011 running mate, some Kentucky labor leaders probably sealed the deal for the man who apparently stands ready to give up the title of Louisville’s “Mayor for Life.”

Beshear couldn’t back away from Abramson now if he wanted to — not without appearing weak and casting himself as a union puppet.

Labor’s issues with Abramson are understandable. He has angered portions of that core Democratic constituency on multiple occasions. But the politically astute course for labor leaders would have been to discuss those concerns with the governor or his aides privately and leave it at that.

Beshear has been a good friend to labor. And labor leaders should know you don’t show up a friend publicly — not if you expect the friendship to remain as strong in the future.

Perhaps more important, if you do show up a friend publicly and fail to effect a desired outcome, you’re the one left looking weak.

Labor’s problems with the Louisville mayor aside, a Beshear-Abramson pairing would present some interesting angles, not the least of which is what it would say about how comfortable the governor is in his own skin.

Abramson has dominated the political scene in Kentucky’s largest city for more than two decades and has even appeared on the national stage as president of the United States Conference of Mayors. It seems unimaginable that someone so accustomed to the spotlight would fade into Frankfort’s shadows if elected lieutenant governor.

A governor willing to set up a situation inviting comparisons to a No. 2 with Abramson’s record of leadership and vision must have more than a little self-confidence.

From a political perspective, though, it would be something of an odd pairing, and not just because of the labor thing or the fact that Beshear doesn’t need help in Jefferson County.

Adding Abramson to the ticket for Beshear’s second term wouldn’t set up the best of succession arrangements for Democrats.

Sure, he’s more than capable of handling the governor’s job. But at the time of the 2015 general election, Abramson would be 69. And even though age now is far less relevant than it once was, persuading Kentuckians to elect a chief executive on the threshold of 70 could take a helluva sales jobs.

(Of course, if Beshear should choose not to serve out a full second term, Abramson would be a 69-year-old incumbent in November 2015, which could make the sales job easier.)

Finally, what signal does Beshear, who has endorsed Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo in the 2010 U.S. Senate primary (albeit in a bit of a lukewarm fashion), send to Democratic voters by choosing as Mongiardo’s replacement a strong supporter of his primary opponent — Attorney General Jack Conway?

Interesting angles, all, but none more interesting than this: Why would Abramson choose to leave his larger-than-life status in Louisville to play a secondary role in Frankfort? If all the hallway chatter proves true, he’ll no doubt be asked that very question next week.

Sunday’s column:

This and that as the taste buds tune up for the 129th Annual Fancy Farm Picnic (Yummy!):

The best description of the $1.32 million Attorney General Jack Conway raised during his first quarter as a U.S. Senate candidate is this: He lapped the freaking field for a first quarter in the race!

More than double the $602,699 Republican Secretary of State Trey Grayson reported for his first quarter. More than triple the $429,552 fellow Democrat Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo drummed up in the first quarter of his campaign.

When all the reports for the quarter that ended June 30 are in, Republican Sen. Jim Bunning easily could be last among Tier 1 candidates — an almost unheard of situation for an incumbent. Worse still, he may soon trail one of the Tier 2 candidates as well.

Rand Paul, a Bowling Green ophthalmologist and the son of U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, said recently that, if he decides to go beyond the exploratory stage and enter this race for real, he will do an on-line fund-raising event with a goal of raising $1 million. Paul already has raised $100,000.

Frankly, despite his protestations to the contrary, it’s increasingly difficult to believe Bunning stays in the Republican primary race.

You don’t tell an ally (Grayson) to warm up in the bullpen with an exploratory committee if you plan to finish the game. Nor do you stop bringing the heat and go to the slow stuff with your own fund-raising.

But back to Conway. Even though his fund-raising prowess may be unequaled in this field and even though he has shown the ability to generate significant dollars in the Eastern Kentucky and Northern Kentucky homes of his major opponents, he still faces a serious challenge in convincing Kentucky voters to send a second Louisvillian to the U.S. Senate.

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If the barbecue, fresh veggies, home-made desserts and the opportunity to sweat off a good 20 pounds in the customary sweltering heat aren’t enough to entice into making the long drive down the Western Kentucky Parkway to the Aug. 1 Fancy Farm Picnic, think of the potential entertainment value if both Bunning and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell attend.

Now that McConnell is giving Bunning a dose of the treatment he gave former Gov. Ernie Fletcher during the low points of his administration, watching the two senators interact on the same stage could be, well, amusing.

                                                         * * *

Chatter has it that Gov. Steve Beshear will name Mongiardo’s replacement for his 2011 slate the week of July 20, with Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson being the most likely candidate.

Chatter sometimes gets it wrong, of course. But this chatter sounds fairly solid.

If it is on the mark, I’m not sure what Abramson adds to the ticket, since Beshear already is strong in Jefferson County.

                                                        * * *

His four previous gubernatorial races left Gatewood Galbraith 0-fer. He’ll still be O-fer after 2012.

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That $55.7 million hole in the state budget for the fiscal year that ended June 30 reminds us again of just how unstable Kentucky’s revenue base is.

And it will never be stable until the state’s 20th century tax structure gets a remodeling that includes adapting it to the 21st century service economy.

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With an extra C, KACo could stand for the Kentucky Association of Campus Cuties Outings.

With the H-L editorial board a bit short-staffed going into a holiday weekend, I won’t be writing a mid-week or Sunday column this week. I may get in a bit of blogging, if anything exciting happens. But otherwise, I’ll be helping out with the routine chores of producing the opinion pages on a daily basis.

Oops! Got my Republican members of Congress mixed up in Sunday’s column. I mistakenly wrote that Patrick Neely, now the executive director of the Kentucky Equine Education Project, was once an aide to U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell. Although Neely volunteered in a couple of McConnell campaigns, he never served on the senator’s staff. He did serve as an aide to former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup and ran a couple of her congressional races. My bad. Senior moments are hell.

Sunday’s column:

Lexington’s Convention and Visitors Bureau stirred up a bit of controversy recently by choosing a blue depiction of seminal Thoroughbred stallion Lexington as the image representative of the Horse Capital of the World.
Bluegrass, blue horse. I get it, but it was way cutesy for me.

More important, though, it misses the reality mark by light years because Kentucky’s Thoroughbred industry bleeds as red — as in Republican — as a raw steak.

Sure, there are exceptions. Former Gov. Brereton Jones and Tracy Farmer, a former Democratic Party state chairman, come to mind.

But the exceptions fill the roles of crazy uncles and aunts at Thoroughbred clan reunions. Most of the family are as proud of their R designation as they are of the colors the jockeys of their horses wear.

Until now.

Now, in the aftermath of a special General Assembly session in which racetrack slots legislation died at the hand of the Republican-controlled state Senate, this scarlet red industry feels betrayed by its own party. And it feels particularly betrayed by horse-country Republican senators who played Brutus to the industry’s Caesar during the session.

At a Wednesday evening rally in Keeneland’s sales pavilion, two of those senators got called out by name. A third got called out by district.

“Elections matter,” Patrick Neely, executive director of the Kentucky Equine Education Project told the crowd of about 1,000. “Who we have representing us in Frankfort matters.

“We cannot forget that people like (Sen.) Alice Forgy Kerr, who represents so many horse farms and Keeneland, voted no. My own state senator, Ernie Harris, who represents Jefferson County — home of Churchill Downs — and Oldham County with so many horse farms, also voted no.”

In case you’re unfamiliar with Neely’s political leanings, his resume includes a stint as an aide to U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell, the reigning godfather of Republican politics in Kentucky.

Later in the program, state Senate Minority Leader Ed Worley drew a roar from the crowd when he took a dig at Sen. Damon Thayer by asking, “Would the senator from Scott stand up if he’s here?”

If Thayer, Kerr and Harris had dared to attend the rally, the clear message they would have heard was that they now have targets on the backs of their political careers. In their next election cycle, they can expect the horse industry to come after them and other Republican opponents of letting Kentucky tracks compete on an equal footing with racinos in other states.

And it won’t necessarily involve a red industry backing blue political horses. While it could come to that later, I expect the industry’s first option would be to use well-financed primary challengers as a means of making the Senate more horse-friendly.

Wednesday’s rally also showed that, although the industry feels betrayed by its favored political party, it does not feel beaten. The crowd may have been mad, but it wasn’t in mourning. Nor should it have been.

As a political issue, expanded gambling may not be ripe in the General Assembly. But it’s a lot riper than it just was two weeks ago. Progress was made when it passed the House for the first time.

But getting it through the Senate will require meeting the challenge Gov. Steve Beshear laid down at the rally: “We’ve either got to change some of the senators’ minds, or we’ve got to change some of the senators.”

On Wednesday at least, the horse industry seemed committed to doing just that.

Thursday’s column:

FRANKFORT — Slots Bill pulled up lame in mid-stretch of the special edition 2009 Legislative Derby. To that point, though, he ran a good race.

Good enough to keep Senate President David Williams playing defense throughout the trip — in the process causing some members of his caucus to cast votes that could come back to haunt a few of them.

Seven Republicans who voted to kneecap Ol’ Slots during Monday’s Senate Appropriations & Revenue Committee face re-election next year, assuming they choose to seek it. Sen. Bob Leeper, the Paducah Independent who caucuses with the Republicans and voted with them on this issue, also faces a 2010 race.

By voting against Slots Bill, six of the seven Republicans and Leeper deprived their districts of K-12 and post-secondary education projects approved by the House and scheduled to be funded with revenue generated by allowing Kentucky racetracks to compete slot machine for slot machine with “racinos” in other states.

The loss in Majority Floor Leader Dan Kelly’s district was minimal — a $1.87 million project in Mercer County. But other districts saw far more significant amounts of proposed spending disappear as a result of their senators’ no votes.

Leeper’s district, for instance, lost projects worth $9.7 million in Marshall County and $17 million in McCracken County.

Sen. Alice Forgy Kerr’s no vote helped deprive Fayette County of $7.4 million in school construction, the University of Kentucky of $136.6 million and the Bluegrass Community and Technical College of $1 million.

A&R Chairman Charlie Borders’ district took a big hit as a result of his vote: school construction worth $3.1 million in Bracken County, $18 million in Carter County, $19 million in Lewis County and $15.7 million in Robertson County. Maysville Community and Technical College lost a $5 million project as well.

Bullitt County, in Sen. Gary Tapp’s district, lost an $18.4 million project as a result of Slots Bill’s defeat. However, Tapp is not seeking re-election next year.

In the district of Sen. Ernie Harris, another no vote, Carroll County lost $2.2 million, Henry County lost $20 and Trimble County lost $10.5 million.

Sen. Brandon Smith also cast a no vote that helped keep his district from receiving school projects worth $4.1 million in Leslie County and $13.4 million in Perry County, plus a $15 million project for Hazard Community and Technical College.

Yes, all of these projects were “earmarks,” and I’m not fond of earmarks. In an ideal world, there would be no earmarks. All of Kentucky’s General Fund revenue would go into one big pool, and thoughtful decision-making would determine what the adequate funding levels of various needs and services should be.

But, pardon a couple of grammatical errors, the Kentucky General Assembly ain’t no ideal world — far from it. The political reality is that earmarks are the way things get done.

Even Williams, who ranted and railed about votes being bought for Slots Bill, has participated in decorating Christmas trees with project ornaments on multiple occasions in an attempt to entice lawmakers into passing legislation promoting his policy agenda.

A second part of that political reality is that lawmakers who vote down projects for their own districts sometimes have to answer for it, a truism proponents of expanded gambling must not forget.

House Speaker Greg Stumbo said this week this issue will not be resolved until the leadership of the Senate changes and the only way to change the Senate leadership is to change its membership.

But votes cast in June 2009 may be forgotten come November 2010.

So, proponents of expanded gambling need to help recruit credible candidates who can change the Senate membership. Then, they need to run Slots Bill right back at the Senate in early January and let the pressure from the horse industry and the education community back home in the Senate districts have plenty of time to build.

House members who supported Slots Bill have nothing to lose by doing so again. They’ve already got a pro-gambling vote on their record, a vote they can explain easily by saying they acted to save Kentucky’s signature industry and to improve school conditions for the state’s children.

But senators facing credible opposition in an election year who help kill projects in their own districts by voting against Slots Bill, either in committee or on the floor of the Senate, may have a tougher time convincing their constituents to send them back to Frankfort.

Who knows? Some of the senators facing the prospect of having to make that argument back home may even decide to help prove Stumbo wrong by rooting Slots Bill on to victory without a change in Senate leadership.

Conference committees trying to figure out if anything can be salvaged from the General Assembly’s special session haven’t made much progress yet. So, I’m pushing my midweek column, which usually appears on Wednesday, back a day this week to let things sort themselves out.

My best guess? A budget agreement could come without a lot of huffing and puffing. An economic incentives package may be doable. An agreement on mega-projects probably won’t happen. And Senate President David Williams’ bailout approach to helping the horse industry has no traction whatsoever with House Democrats, Gov. Steve Beshear or the industry itself.

A lack of agreement on mega-projects could be the end for the proposed Louisville bridges. Indiana has plenty of uses for the more than $1 billion it has set aside. And the offer of federal help for the Kentucky share of the project could lapse due to the General Assembly’s inability to get its act together on this issue.

UPDATE 4:55 P.M.: Agreement apparently reached on the budget, although the final document still needs to be prepared.

Sunday’s column:

FRANKFORT — Slots Bill completed the first half of the Legislative Derby Friday, albeit at a very slow 3:28:36 pace.

That’s 3 hours, 28 minutes and 36 seconds from the time debate began until the voting machine locked in the final 52-45 tally. It’s been a while since I’ve witnessed (endured?) a debate of that length — if ever.

Now, Ol’ Slots trots down to the west end of the Capitol’s third floor, where Senate President David Williams awaits with a rival pony — a tax-and-spend bailout for a racing industry that hasn’t asked for one and, indeed, doesn’t want one.

All this state’s signature industry has asked for or wants is the ability to compete on a level playing field with racino tracks in other states that use revenue from expanded gambling to enhance purses and breeding incentives and lure owners and trainers away from Kentucky. House Bill 2 would give them that ability. Williams’ plan would not.

At one point Friday, Williams proposed supplementing his bailout by adding a 10 percent tax on charitable gaming to the 10 percent tax on lottery sales and the tax on out-of-state wagering he previously suggested. That had me wondering if he was cracking a bit under pressure of knowing that his usual intimidation tactics were not paralyzing the House into inaction this time and that Slots Bill was headed his way.

One thing even his enemies credit Williams with is smarts. But proposing a tax that would bring members of booster clubs, certain church denominations, service organizations and charitable operations out in opposition by the tens of thousands has to be the dumbest political idea I’ve heard around the state Capitol in many years.

Surely, Williams knows some of his caucus members could not survive such a vote. The fact that he even raised the issue is an indication that he was desperately searching for a way to avoid dealing with Slots Bill.

Ultimately, the tax on charitable gaming was removed from Williams’ plan.

But another sign of Williams’ desperation in trying to find money for his bailout is the $7 million his plan would take from a health insurance fund for state workers. The bulk of that money, $6.5 million, would be loaned to Ellis Park in Henderson. Smaller loans would go to Thunder Ridge in Prestonsburg and the Red Mile in Lexington.

Oddly enough, Williams did not mention this particular detail in committee or on the floor of the Senate.

Slots Bill does not tax lottery sales, which almost certainly would reduce sales and, consequently, reduce funding for scholarships. Nor does Slots Bill rob state workers’ health insurance fund to loan money to racetracks. Its sole goal is to put Kentucky tracks in a competitive position with their counterparts in racino states.

Although its passage by the House Friday only gets it through the first half of the Legislative Derby, it was still a win of sorts for Gov. Steve Beshear, who campaigned on expanding gambling (admittedly, via constitutional amendment) but couldn’t get it to a House vote on his first try in 2008.

It also represented a win of sorts for House Speaker Greg Stumbo, who rose to that position in no small part because of the inability of a Democratic governor to have his top priority receive a floor vote in a Democratic-controlled House last year. Not only did Stumbo show Friday that he can deliver the vote for his party’s governor, he also proved once again that he is equal to the task of matching Williams’ legislative guile.

Word in the halls had it that, if the House passed the measure Friday, Williams would have the Senate Appropriations and Revenue Committee vote to kill it Friday afternoon. That would end the issue before his caucus members went home for the weekend, where they might be expected to feel pressure from school superintendents and higher education officials interested in the $1.3 billion in construction that could be funded by Slots Bill.

Stumbo’s solution: Pass Slots Bill on Friday, but don’t send him to the Senate until Monday.

Williams still vows to euthanize the poor fellow then, but Slots Bill at least gets to live through the weekend.

Sorry for the delay in posting Wednesday’s column. Thought I had set it to post automatically Wednesday morning. Guess not. But here it is now:

FRANKFORT - In and out of special session in five days. Two weeks minimum, maybe more.

Slots Bill, a veteran campaigner who has trained often for the Legislative Derby but has yet to leave the gate, doesn’t have the speed to sprint through the House. Slots Bill will breeze through the House with speed to spare, allowing some of his secret admirers to avoid risking a bet on him.

If Slots Bill gets through the House, he will fade fast in the Senate stretch. Slots Bill could have an easier time in the Senate than in the House.

As these contradictory comments suggest, if you can imagine it, it’s probably been uttered in the halls of state power the past couple of days. And generally speaking, you take it all with a healthy helping of that staple one company peddles with the aid of a girl, her umbrella and the slogan “When it rains, it pours.”

All except this:

If Gov. Steve Beshear, House Speaker Greg Stumbo and the horse industry (Ol’ Slots’ current trainer, jockey and owners) seriously want him to win this race, they better have him leading, or at least in a dead heat with Budget Reduction when the field makes the turn for home. Let Budget Reduction round the turn first, and the Senate might declare him a winner, distribute the purse and send its folks home before Slots appears before them.

If I were training or riding Slots, I would want him deep into the stretch before Budget Reduction enters it. That way, a Senate that acts with warp speed on a revised $9 billion General Fund budget would look a tad hypocritical if it tried to use lack of time as an excuse for not dealing with Ol’ Slots.

But if you see Slots Bill trailing Budget Reduction in the race to the Senate, you can draw one of two conclusions. His camp either has lost its will to win, or it has lost its collective horse sense.

Either would be unfortunate because the stars seem to align themselves better for Slots Bill this year than at any time in the past.

Recent events have clarified the gravity of the crisis facing Kentucky’s racing industry due to the competitive advantage racino tracks have in offering purses and breeding incentives. Those same events - shortened fields, canceled races and race dates - have built momentum for giving Kentucky tracks the tools to compete.

Attorney General Jack Conway’s opinion, issued Monday, concluding that enacting expanded gambling statutorily is constitutional improved Slots Bill’s chances a bit.

Permit me an aside here. To be honest, the longer Conway delayed releasing this opinion, the more I wondered if his U.S. Senate aspirations might have him looking for a way to dodge the issue. My bad.

His office produced a sound, reasoned opinion that took a strong stand on a controversial matter. And although he didn’t write the opinion himself, he will take the political hit for it.

He didn’t have to do so. He could have used his father’s involvement in racing and membership on the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission as an excuse to claim a conflict of interest and avoid the issue completely.

Instead, he sought advice from the Executive Branch Ethics Commission staff. And when John Steffen, the commission’s executive director, told him in a letter that any potential for conflict of interest was not “substantial or material,” Conway stepped up and did his job, despite the potential consequences for his Senate campaign. That moved him up the stature scale a bit.

Now, back to Slots Bill’s bid to win the Legislative Derby.

I thought Beshear missed an excellent opportunity to stress the urgency of the horse industry’s crisis during his address to a joint session of the General Assembly Monday night.

An alarm going off somewhere in the Capitol caused Beshear to hesitate a few moments before beginning his speech. What a great time to say, “Hear that. It’s a call to action in this emergency.”