KyKurmudgeon

Sunday’s column:

This and that as the morphing of the state Senate continues:

Frankfort’s worst-kept secret in recent memory produced its expected conclusion when Gov. Steve Beshear picked former Senate Majority Leader Dan Kelly to fill a vacant seat on the 11th Judicial Circuit bench. Funny, isn’t it, how the months of hallway chatter preceding the nominating process proved to be so eerily accurate on this one?

Oh, well, Beshear at least gave the appearance of considering the other two nominees. He let a full weekend go by before naming Kelly to the post, thereby creating another opportunity for Democrats to capture a seat formerly held by a Republican in a special election.

But the Kelly gambit has more potential for exploding in Beshear’s face than the appointment of Republican former Sen. Charlie Borders to the Public Service Commission, which set up the special election won by Democrat Robin Webb.

Although a coveted job with big-time pay, a PSC commissioner essentially serves at the whim of the governor. When Borders’ initial term is up, whoever occupies the governor’s office will decide whether he gets reappointed or gets shown the door.

But appointment to a judicial post invests the lucky recipient with the perks of incumbency when the next election rolls around.

By giving a Republican the opportunity to run a “Keep Judge Kelly on the Bench” campaign in the next election, Beshear upset some members of his own party who thought a Democratic governor should bestow such favors on fellow Democrats. Should they decide to sit out the upcoming 14th District special election, picking up Kelly’s seat would become more problematic even though Democrats’ advantage in voter registration is more than 2 to 1.

All other things being equal, though, the 14th District ought to be receptive to the current Democratic mantra about giving Kentucky’s signature racing industry the expanded gambling options it needs to compete with racino-enhanced purses and breeding incentives that are luring Kentucky trainers and owners to other states.

The 14th isn’t in the heart of horse country, but elements of the racing industry exist there. And it has a significant population of Catholics, who are more accepting of gambling than some other faiths.

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I grew up in the 14th District, in Washington County. I came of age, slightly ahead of legal age, at a couple of Lebanon nightclubs way back in the day.

But I know the two candidates in the special election — Republican Rep. Jimmy Higdon and Democratic former Rep. Jodie Haydon — only through their legislative careers. Both are good guys. And left to their own devices, I would expect them to run a clean campaign.

Unfortunately, their respective parties and assorted other groups rarely let two decent candidates settle the issue by themselves these days.

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Then, there were none.

Entering last week, 11 of the 12 states Kentucky’s racing industry competes with offered some form of expanded gambling. On Tuesday, Ohio voters made it 12 for 12.

Not immediately, of course. A Cincinnati casino isn’t expected to open until 2012. But when it does, the one remaining gap in the line of casinos along Kentucky’s northern border will be closed.

And Kentucky tracks, which recently requested 67 fewer racing dates in 2010 than they initially requested for 2009, will find themselves at an even greater competitive disadvantage.

All the more reason for Kentucky lawmakers to take the legislative route to approving racetrack slots rather than a constitutional amendment process that could delay approval by up to two years.

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“Holiday tree” is too PC by far for the kurmudgeon in me.

But having gone there, Gov. Beshear should have stayed there. Reversing course to “Christmas tree” comes across as a flip-flop.

Sunday’s column:

Republicans who shopped state Rep. Robin Webb’s story to various media outlets in recent days no doubt hoped the focus would be on the suspension of her law license, her bankruptcy and her bout with post-traumatic stress and depression.

Turns out, though, the full story behind those events from years ago establishes Webb as a sympathetic figure — a victim of domestic violence who went through some serious hell, survived it and emerged a stronger person.

But even though it may backfire on them, the fact that R’s tried to use her misfortunes against her shows how desperately they want to hold onto the 18th District Senate seat vacated by former Sen. Charlie Borders, who accepted an appointment to the Public Service Commission.

If Webb beats Dr. Jack Ditty in the Aug. 25 special election, it could confirm a couple of Republican fears.

First, a Webb win would validate Gov. Steve Beshear’s use of his appointment power to create opportunities for flipping R seats in the Senate.

More appointments could be expected. For instance, Majority Floor Leader Dan Kelly might get the judicial appointment that has been the subject of much Frankfort chatter, opening up a seat in a district where Democrats should be very competitive.

A second fear arises from the racetrack slots legislation killed in Senate committee during the June special session of the General Assembly.

Webb voted for the measure in the House and can expect financial support from the horse industry in her race against Ditty. If a Democrat backed by horse money successfully flips an R seat in Eastern Kentucky, some Republican senators from horse country who opposed racetrack slots could get a bit nervous about the prospect of the industry coming after them the next time they’re on the ballot.

Of course, a Webb victory in the 18th District is far from guaranteed. And if she does lose, some observers expect Beshear to adopt a “what’s the use” attitude about a judgeship for Kelly. I disagree.

Should Kelly run for judge next year, as some expect him to do if he doesn’t get an appointment, that would mean trying to pick up his seat in an election that might feature Secretary of State Trey Grayson at the top of the Republican ballot as a U.S. Senate candidate who can get his party’s voters to the polls.

Better for Beshear and the Democrats to try to pick up Kelly’s seat in a special election because, if they’re successful, the D winner would then run as an incumbent in 2010. And incumbents generally win.

Given recent events, one might assume all of this maneuvering over Senate seats by both parties arises from Beshear’s desire to pass expanded gambling legislation and Republicans’ desire to thwart him.

That is a factor, but there is a much bigger end game for both parties — the legislative and congressional redistricting that comes after the 2010 census.

If the Democrats can pick up a couple of seats in special elections this year, they would only need to flip two more in 2010 to retake the Senate and have total control of redistricting. But if Republicans can retain a majority, no matter how slim, they will be able to control Senate redistricting and force House Democrats to negotiate on congressional districts.

Kentucky may well lose a congressional district after the next census. If that happens, 2nd District Rep. Brett Gutherie could be the odd man out no matter who controls the Senate. He’s the newest member of the delegation. And Warren County, where he lives, is nearly surrounded by the 1st District already.

Of course, if Democrats retake the Senate, they could create a Tennessee border district stretching from Somerset to Hopkinsville, lumping Gutherie with fellow Republican Reps. Ed Whitfield and Hal Rogers. But they wouldn’t be that diabolical, would they?

Gov. Steve Beshear today appointed three new members of the Judicial Nominating Commission for the 11th Judicial Circuit and District. He also reappointed one existing member. Senate Majority Leader Dan Kelly reportedly has an interest in an open judicial seat in that circuit. Could this be the first step in the process of appointing Kelly to that seat and opening up another Republican-held Senate seat for a special election?

The three new appointees are:

Blanche C. Minor, of Mannsville, is a retired state employee.  The appointment replaces Ruth T. Hagan, whose term has expired.  Minor shall serve for a term expiring Jan. 1, 2010.

Vernon E. Bagby, of Greensburg, is a retired funeral director.  The appointment replaces Wilma D. Grigsby, whose term has expired.  Bagby shall serve for a term expiring Jan. 1, 2012.

David R. Carney, of Springfield, is a factory technician with Trim Masters, Inc.  The appointment replaces Bobby G. Curry, whose term has expired.  Carney shall serve for a term expiring Jan. 1, 2012.

The reappointed member of the commision is:

Shiela W. Newcomb, of Campbellsville, is a field business office manager for Kentucky Utilities Company.

Checking around to get different observers’ reaction to Gov. Steve Beshear’s choice of Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson, I got a response from someone who, for the purpose of this post, will be known as Anomalous (his choice) that deserves to be shared.

“Mostly, I’m baffled,” Anomalous wrote in an e-mail. “Lt. Governors should bring at least one of two things to the ticket: money or votes. I don’t see either as a result of this pairing.”

Anomalous then cited Occam’s Razor Theory, which generally holds that the simplest of two or more competing theories is the preferable one, before adding:

“Subsequently, the two theories here would be: 1) this is a brilliant political move (for reasons yet to be determined), or 2) this is an indicator of the lack of political acumen in the administration (as previously demonstrated).”

I guess it’s safe to say Anomalous is unimpressed, either by the choice or the administration.

At the official kickoff of his re-election campaign Monday, Gov. Steve Beshear said he will not attend this year’s 129th Annual Fancy Farm Picnic. He will be on a family vacation instead. Beshear’s new running mate, Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson, will attend the Aug. 1 picnic but will not be one of the speakers.

So far, the confirmed speakers include Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo, Secretary of State Trey Grayson, state Treasurer Todd Hollenbach, state Sen. Ken Winters, state Reps. Fred Nesler and Steven Rudy. In addition to Mongiardo and Grayson, three other candidates in the 2010 U.S. Senate race are on the program: Republicans Rand Paul (a Bowling Green ophthalmologist) and Bill Johnson (a Todd County businessman) and Democrat Darlene Fitzgerald Price (a former Customs agent).

Sunday’s column:

FRANKFORT — Robert Burns got it right about “The best laid schemes o’ mice an’ men.”

After addressing a few aspects of Beshear-Abramson 2011 in Wednesday’s column, this mouse’s scheme for Sunday involved letting Republican Sen. Charlie Borders’ resignation lead into a discussion of Democratic efforts to take back the state Senate. That, in turn, would lead to a few words about the ultimate prize at stake for both parties in next year’s Senate races: control of and/or influence over the legislative and congressional redistricting that will follow the 2010 census.

Ah, well. That scheme now must be shelved until another day.

For even though Gov. Steve Beshear’s gambit in appointing Borders to the Public Service Commission rippled Kentucky’s political waters last week, the waves kept churning around Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson, who is expected to be introduced as Beshear’s 2011 running mate Monday.

Hallway chatter in Frankfort at week’s end had some elements of labor casting about for someone capable of taking a Beshear-Abramson ticket out in the Democratic primary. Such is their dislike for the erstwhile “Mayor for Life” of the state’s largest city.

I can’t see that happening. A bloody 2011 Democratic primary would play into Republican hands come that November.

But the mere fact that this daydreaming was occurring  suggests the backwash from Beshear’s choice could be considerably greater than he anticipated.

In Louisville, the Metro Council began taking an increasing interest in the secrecy about how a controversial forgivable loan of tax dollars the Abramson administration approved for a company developing an additional venue at 4th Street Live was spent.

And two African-American members of the state House from Louisville, Reps. Darryl Owens and Reginald Meeks, released a joint statement criticizing Abramson over a comment he made to a West Virginia newspaper in which he attributed the need for merging Louisville and Jefferson County governments in part to the city getting “poorer, blacker and older.”

By week’s end, I began to sense that a Beshear-Abramson 2011 ticket does far more for Abramson — by giving him an excuse not to run for re-election next year and risk being ridden out of office on a figurative rail — than it does for Beshear.

Because I’m still left with my initial question about this match-up:

What does Abramson bring to Beshear’s table that benefits the governor?

Not votes, that’s for sure. A running mate who alienates two core Democratic constituencies — labor and African-Americans — doesn’t bring votes to the table.

No, those constituencies won’t run to embrace a Republican candidate in November 2011. But they might sit at home, which could be just as damaging.

Fund-raising help? Yeah, there is that. In the private sector, Abramson would make a consummate salesman. So, he’s ideal for making a pitch to the money crowd.

But a sitting governor who hasn’t shot himself in both feet and at least three vital organs doesn’t need help raising dough. In politics, money flows toward incumbents like water down a drainpipe.

So, unless Beshear just finds the whole money-grubbing process distasteful and wants to dump it on someone else, adding Abramson’s fund-raising skills to his own is like unloading both barrels of the shotgun on one little varmint.

Best I can tell from deciphering the late-week chatter, what Abramson really brings to Beshear’s table is a comfortable fit. The two apparently get along well, which is not always the case in such political marriages.

Now, comfort is a good thing. I enjoy comfort. I wish I could enjoy more of it than I can afford right now. And that is the thing about comfort: It comes at a cost.

So, if Beshear and Abramson want to spend four comfortable years together after November 2011, it might be wise of them to spend some uncomfortable moments between now and then, the kind of uncomfortable moments that involve making amends and trying to keep core Democratic constituencies from sitting out an election.

Wednesday’s column:

By going public with their objections to the selection of Jerry Abramson as Gov. Steve Beshear’s 2011 running mate, some Kentucky labor leaders probably sealed the deal for the man who apparently stands ready to give up the title of Louisville’s “Mayor for Life.”

Beshear couldn’t back away from Abramson now if he wanted to — not without appearing weak and casting himself as a union puppet.

Labor’s issues with Abramson are understandable. He has angered portions of that core Democratic constituency on multiple occasions. But the politically astute course for labor leaders would have been to discuss those concerns with the governor or his aides privately and leave it at that.

Beshear has been a good friend to labor. And labor leaders should know you don’t show up a friend publicly — not if you expect the friendship to remain as strong in the future.

Perhaps more important, if you do show up a friend publicly and fail to effect a desired outcome, you’re the one left looking weak.

Labor’s problems with the Louisville mayor aside, a Beshear-Abramson pairing would present some interesting angles, not the least of which is what it would say about how comfortable the governor is in his own skin.

Abramson has dominated the political scene in Kentucky’s largest city for more than two decades and has even appeared on the national stage as president of the United States Conference of Mayors. It seems unimaginable that someone so accustomed to the spotlight would fade into Frankfort’s shadows if elected lieutenant governor.

A governor willing to set up a situation inviting comparisons to a No. 2 with Abramson’s record of leadership and vision must have more than a little self-confidence.

From a political perspective, though, it would be something of an odd pairing, and not just because of the labor thing or the fact that Beshear doesn’t need help in Jefferson County.

Adding Abramson to the ticket for Beshear’s second term wouldn’t set up the best of succession arrangements for Democrats.

Sure, he’s more than capable of handling the governor’s job. But at the time of the 2015 general election, Abramson would be 69. And even though age now is far less relevant than it once was, persuading Kentuckians to elect a chief executive on the threshold of 70 could take a helluva sales jobs.

(Of course, if Beshear should choose not to serve out a full second term, Abramson would be a 69-year-old incumbent in November 2015, which could make the sales job easier.)

Finally, what signal does Beshear, who has endorsed Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo in the 2010 U.S. Senate primary (albeit in a bit of a lukewarm fashion), send to Democratic voters by choosing as Mongiardo’s replacement a strong supporter of his primary opponent — Attorney General Jack Conway?

Interesting angles, all, but none more interesting than this: Why would Abramson choose to leave his larger-than-life status in Louisville to play a secondary role in Frankfort? If all the hallway chatter proves true, he’ll no doubt be asked that very question next week.

Sunday’s column:

This and that as the taste buds tune up for the 129th Annual Fancy Farm Picnic (Yummy!):

The best description of the $1.32 million Attorney General Jack Conway raised during his first quarter as a U.S. Senate candidate is this: He lapped the freaking field for a first quarter in the race!

More than double the $602,699 Republican Secretary of State Trey Grayson reported for his first quarter. More than triple the $429,552 fellow Democrat Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo drummed up in the first quarter of his campaign.

When all the reports for the quarter that ended June 30 are in, Republican Sen. Jim Bunning easily could be last among Tier 1 candidates — an almost unheard of situation for an incumbent. Worse still, he may soon trail one of the Tier 2 candidates as well.

Rand Paul, a Bowling Green ophthalmologist and the son of U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, said recently that, if he decides to go beyond the exploratory stage and enter this race for real, he will do an on-line fund-raising event with a goal of raising $1 million. Paul already has raised $100,000.

Frankly, despite his protestations to the contrary, it’s increasingly difficult to believe Bunning stays in the Republican primary race.

You don’t tell an ally (Grayson) to warm up in the bullpen with an exploratory committee if you plan to finish the game. Nor do you stop bringing the heat and go to the slow stuff with your own fund-raising.

But back to Conway. Even though his fund-raising prowess may be unequaled in this field and even though he has shown the ability to generate significant dollars in the Eastern Kentucky and Northern Kentucky homes of his major opponents, he still faces a serious challenge in convincing Kentucky voters to send a second Louisvillian to the U.S. Senate.

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If the barbecue, fresh veggies, home-made desserts and the opportunity to sweat off a good 20 pounds in the customary sweltering heat aren’t enough to entice into making the long drive down the Western Kentucky Parkway to the Aug. 1 Fancy Farm Picnic, think of the potential entertainment value if both Bunning and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell attend.

Now that McConnell is giving Bunning a dose of the treatment he gave former Gov. Ernie Fletcher during the low points of his administration, watching the two senators interact on the same stage could be, well, amusing.

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Chatter has it that Gov. Steve Beshear will name Mongiardo’s replacement for his 2011 slate the week of July 20, with Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson being the most likely candidate.

Chatter sometimes gets it wrong, of course. But this chatter sounds fairly solid.

If it is on the mark, I’m not sure what Abramson adds to the ticket, since Beshear already is strong in Jefferson County.

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His four previous gubernatorial races left Gatewood Galbraith 0-fer. He’ll still be O-fer after 2012.

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That $55.7 million hole in the state budget for the fiscal year that ended June 30 reminds us again of just how unstable Kentucky’s revenue base is.

And it will never be stable until the state’s 20th century tax structure gets a remodeling that includes adapting it to the 21st century service economy.

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With an extra C, KACo could stand for the Kentucky Association of Campus Cuties Outings.

Sunday’s column:

Lexington’s Convention and Visitors Bureau stirred up a bit of controversy recently by choosing a blue depiction of seminal Thoroughbred stallion Lexington as the image representative of the Horse Capital of the World.
Bluegrass, blue horse. I get it, but it was way cutesy for me.

More important, though, it misses the reality mark by light years because Kentucky’s Thoroughbred industry bleeds as red — as in Republican — as a raw steak.

Sure, there are exceptions. Former Gov. Brereton Jones and Tracy Farmer, a former Democratic Party state chairman, come to mind.

But the exceptions fill the roles of crazy uncles and aunts at Thoroughbred clan reunions. Most of the family are as proud of their R designation as they are of the colors the jockeys of their horses wear.

Until now.

Now, in the aftermath of a special General Assembly session in which racetrack slots legislation died at the hand of the Republican-controlled state Senate, this scarlet red industry feels betrayed by its own party. And it feels particularly betrayed by horse-country Republican senators who played Brutus to the industry’s Caesar during the session.

At a Wednesday evening rally in Keeneland’s sales pavilion, two of those senators got called out by name. A third got called out by district.

“Elections matter,” Patrick Neely, executive director of the Kentucky Equine Education Project told the crowd of about 1,000. “Who we have representing us in Frankfort matters.

“We cannot forget that people like (Sen.) Alice Forgy Kerr, who represents so many horse farms and Keeneland, voted no. My own state senator, Ernie Harris, who represents Jefferson County — home of Churchill Downs — and Oldham County with so many horse farms, also voted no.”

In case you’re unfamiliar with Neely’s political leanings, his resume includes a stint as an aide to U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell, the reigning godfather of Republican politics in Kentucky.

Later in the program, state Senate Minority Leader Ed Worley drew a roar from the crowd when he took a dig at Sen. Damon Thayer by asking, “Would the senator from Scott stand up if he’s here?”

If Thayer, Kerr and Harris had dared to attend the rally, the clear message they would have heard was that they now have targets on the backs of their political careers. In their next election cycle, they can expect the horse industry to come after them and other Republican opponents of letting Kentucky tracks compete on an equal footing with racinos in other states.

And it won’t necessarily involve a red industry backing blue political horses. While it could come to that later, I expect the industry’s first option would be to use well-financed primary challengers as a means of making the Senate more horse-friendly.

Wednesday’s rally also showed that, although the industry feels betrayed by its favored political party, it does not feel beaten. The crowd may have been mad, but it wasn’t in mourning. Nor should it have been.

As a political issue, expanded gambling may not be ripe in the General Assembly. But it’s a lot riper than it just was two weeks ago. Progress was made when it passed the House for the first time.

But getting it through the Senate will require meeting the challenge Gov. Steve Beshear laid down at the rally: “We’ve either got to change some of the senators’ minds, or we’ve got to change some of the senators.”

On Wednesday at least, the horse industry seemed committed to doing just that.

Here are a few of the better comments from speakers at the Kentucky Equine Education Project rally that drew about 1,000 to Keeneland’s sales pavillion Wednesday evening:

“We want to make it real clear, no question about it, do doubt, this fight ain’t over yet.” - Keeneland President Nick Nicholson.

“It really is like a Third World dictatorship. The only way to get rid of a dictatorship is through revolution, and the revolution starts here tonight.” - Former Gov. Brereton Jones, referring to the state Senate under President David Williams. Jones earlier had made a reference to a “third-rate dictator.”

“Elections matter. Who we have representing us in Frankfort matters. We cannot forget that people like (Sen.) Alice Forgy Kerr, who represents so many horse farms and Keeneland, voted no. My own state senator, Ernie Harris, who represents Jefferson County - home of Churchill Downs - and Oldham County with so many horse farms, also voted no.” Patrick Neely, executive director of KEEP.

“Would the senator from Scott stand up if he’s here?” - Senate Minority Leader Ed Worley, after the crowd saw a video of his Senate floor speech chastising Sen. Damon Thayor for criticising Gov. Steve Beshear for not helping the industry. In that floor speech, Worley invited his fellow senators, and Thayer in particular, to attend the KEEP rally. Thayer did not attend.

“(Sen.) Kathy Stein had her two dogs here. That was in case David Williams showed up. She was going to chase his sorry ass all the way home.” - Rep. Carl Rollins, standing in for House Speaker Greg Stumbo, who could not attend.

“We ended a special session today, but tonight is not an ending. It’s the beginning. It’s the beginning of a campaign that is not going to quit until we have done our job and we have saved this horse industry that is so beloved in our state. Yes, it’s a beginning tonight; and it’s time to make some changes. … We’ve got to do one of two things, and I’ll take either one of them. We’ve either got to change some of the senators’ minds, or we’ve got to change some of the senators.” - Gov. Beshear.

Around Frankfort Wednesday, there was talk that expanded gambling and Beshear were both on the ropes. No one who witnessed the revival-like atmosphere at the Wednesday night rally would agree.