KyKurmudgeon

Sunday’s column:

FRANKFORT — More than once in this column, I’ve noted the sight that often greets folks leaving the Capitol late in the day.

Buzzards. Hundreds of buzzards circling the sky above the seat of state government. Hundreds more roosting in the trees lining the nearby Kentucky River.

They come to mind again as another General Assembly begins because their numbers and the sense of impending death these carrion convey make them a fitting symbol for the likely outcome of the triangular political maneuvering that will play out below them during the next few months.

Call this the Buzzard Triangle, because it can be just as deadly as the fabled Bermuda Triangle. Not for ships, sailors and passengers, mind you. But rather for reason, common sense and any semblance of bipartisan support for good public policy that can drag Kentucky out of the mid-20th century — if not the 19th — onto the doorstep of the 21st century’s second decade.

Gov. Steve Beshear occupies one corner of this triangle. He wants Kentucky racetracks to get slots, and not solely because it would put them on an equal footing with their counterparts in “racino” states where purses and breeding incentives are fattened with revenue from expanded gambling. Taxes from racetrack slots would make it a bit easier for Kentucky to deal with a $1.5 billion revenue shortfall over the next two-year budget cycle.

But Beshear repeatedly has voiced opposition to enacting comprehensive tax reform during a recession. Never mind that real reform would give relief to low- and middle-income Kentuckians at a time of their most desperate need. Never mind that it would give the state the stable, sustainable revenue base that would make it more resilient in future economic downturns. Now is not the time to do tax reform, according to Beshear.

In another corner of the triangle sits House Speaker Greg Stumbo. He, too, supports racetrack slots. He even pushed a bill through the House last summer only to see it die in a Senate committee.

Unlike Beshear, though, Stumbo has made positive noises about addressing some level of tax reform in this session. His stated motive is that he doesn’t want to turn his back on education, which has been protected from the effects of other recent revenue shortfalls but may be at risk now.

That leaves the third corner, where Senate President David Williams talks about slots as if they are a societal ill, even though he has acknowledged frequenting casinos himself.

Williams also has indicated a willingness to address tax reform. But his recent comments regarding the size of the revenue shortfall (he puts it at something less than $1 billion) suggest he’s more inclined in this session to reduce the size of state government and make it live within its means. Of course, that probably would involve layoffs of state employees that increase the state’s jobless rate as well as the demand for the very state services that get cut in the process.

Beshear needs a win. Midway through his first (and perhaps only) term, his administration’s achievements, commendable as some of them may be, fall considerably short of “legacy” status.

Partly, that is the result of having to deal with a series of revenue shortfalls that not only demanded much of his attention during the past two years, but also left no spare budget change for sexy new initiatives.

But a significant share of the blame rests with Beshear himself. He squandered much, if not all, of his post-election political capital in a disastrously unsuccessful attempt to keep Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo’s former Senate seat in the D column. He has never fully recovered from that debacle and has yet to demonstrate the political and persuasive skills a governor must bring into play if he wants to bend the legislative process to his will.

Stumbo’s recent comments on taxes and education (following his success at pushing expanded gambling through the House after Beshear failed in his first attempt) at least suggest he may be positioning himself as a strong, progressive alternative to a weakened, hesitant incumbent in the 2011 Democratic primary.

Upset by Beshear’s attempts to improve Democratic numbers in the Senate by appointing incumbent Republicans to plum jobs, Williams can be expected to make life as difficult as possible for the governor during this session. Of course, if obstructionism by Senate Republicans produces Draconian results, well, that has a down side, too.

So, there it is. Welcome to the Buzzard Triangle.

Mixing comparisons, if not metaphors, the inscription at the entrance to Hell in Dante’s Inferno provides an apt warning of what lies ahead as this triangle maneuvers through the 2010 session: “Abandon hope, all ye who enter here.”