KyKurmudgeon

Sunday’s column:

Republicans who shopped state Rep. Robin Webb’s story to various media outlets in recent days no doubt hoped the focus would be on the suspension of her law license, her bankruptcy and her bout with post-traumatic stress and depression.

Turns out, though, the full story behind those events from years ago establishes Webb as a sympathetic figure — a victim of domestic violence who went through some serious hell, survived it and emerged a stronger person.

But even though it may backfire on them, the fact that R’s tried to use her misfortunes against her shows how desperately they want to hold onto the 18th District Senate seat vacated by former Sen. Charlie Borders, who accepted an appointment to the Public Service Commission.

If Webb beats Dr. Jack Ditty in the Aug. 25 special election, it could confirm a couple of Republican fears.

First, a Webb win would validate Gov. Steve Beshear’s use of his appointment power to create opportunities for flipping R seats in the Senate.

More appointments could be expected. For instance, Majority Floor Leader Dan Kelly might get the judicial appointment that has been the subject of much Frankfort chatter, opening up a seat in a district where Democrats should be very competitive.

A second fear arises from the racetrack slots legislation killed in Senate committee during the June special session of the General Assembly.

Webb voted for the measure in the House and can expect financial support from the horse industry in her race against Ditty. If a Democrat backed by horse money successfully flips an R seat in Eastern Kentucky, some Republican senators from horse country who opposed racetrack slots could get a bit nervous about the prospect of the industry coming after them the next time they’re on the ballot.

Of course, a Webb victory in the 18th District is far from guaranteed. And if she does lose, some observers expect Beshear to adopt a “what’s the use” attitude about a judgeship for Kelly. I disagree.

Should Kelly run for judge next year, as some expect him to do if he doesn’t get an appointment, that would mean trying to pick up his seat in an election that might feature Secretary of State Trey Grayson at the top of the Republican ballot as a U.S. Senate candidate who can get his party’s voters to the polls.

Better for Beshear and the Democrats to try to pick up Kelly’s seat in a special election because, if they’re successful, the D winner would then run as an incumbent in 2010. And incumbents generally win.

Given recent events, one might assume all of this maneuvering over Senate seats by both parties arises from Beshear’s desire to pass expanded gambling legislation and Republicans’ desire to thwart him.

That is a factor, but there is a much bigger end game for both parties — the legislative and congressional redistricting that comes after the 2010 census.

If the Democrats can pick up a couple of seats in special elections this year, they would only need to flip two more in 2010 to retake the Senate and have total control of redistricting. But if Republicans can retain a majority, no matter how slim, they will be able to control Senate redistricting and force House Democrats to negotiate on congressional districts.

Kentucky may well lose a congressional district after the next census. If that happens, 2nd District Rep. Brett Gutherie could be the odd man out no matter who controls the Senate. He’s the newest member of the delegation. And Warren County, where he lives, is nearly surrounded by the 1st District already.

Of course, if Democrats retake the Senate, they could create a Tennessee border district stretching from Somerset to Hopkinsville, lumping Gutherie with fellow Republican Reps. Ed Whitfield and Hal Rogers. But they wouldn’t be that diabolical, would they?