KyKurmudgeon

Sunday’s column:

FRANKFORT — Lately, U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell’s main argument for re-election to a fifth term has gone something like this:

“I have seniority. As minority floor leader, I have a place at the table when the decisions are made and the clout to bring home the bacon. Don’t trade all of that away for a rookie.”

OK, McConnell would never utter “minority” in front of “floor leader.” That would remind him he didn’t achieve his dream (and maybe never will) of becoming “majority” floor leader. But the rest of those words represent his basic pitch to Kentucky voters in recent weeks.

However, even if he survives Democrat Bruce Lunsford’s challenge Tuesday, McConnell may well find his clout has been greatly diminished when he returns to Washington in January. And his presence at the table, if he still has a place there, could be ignored when the serious discussions occur.

This election shapes up as a real downer for Republicans. Even before Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens got convicted on seven felony counts, Democrats were talking about winning a filibuster- and veto-proof majority in the Senate. The conviction of Stevens, a good buddy of McConnell’s, improves that possibility.

Republican prospects look so grim the party’s national committee recently secured a $5 million line of credit to help several embattled Republican incumbents, including McConnell.

If the Democrats succeed in attaining 60 votes (with the help of a couple of independents),  McConnell’s relevance takes a huge hit. Even if the Democrats (aided by those independents) get a majority in the high 50s, they may be able to get most anything they want done by picking up a vote or two from moderate Republicans.

Despite his seniority and his position of leadership, McConnell might not fare as well as a rookie would under these two scenarios, particularly a rookie who helps put the Democrats in that position.

Exhibits A and B for that argument are U.S. Reps. Ben Chandler and John Yarmuth, who both had more influence with their party leaders than normal for freshmen because they flipped Republican seats and helped retake the House for Democrats.

If Lunsford succeeds in doing a Tom Daschle number on McConnell, he can expect Democratic Senate leaders to greet his arrival in Washington like the return of the prodigal son.

McConnell’s argument also rests on the assumption that his fellow Republicans retain him as their leader. But it was on his watch that  Republican fortunes declined so much that he and several of his colleagues are now at risk.

When the head lemming takes the pack over the cliff and into the rough seas Republican senators expect to experience Tuesday, some of the survivors might start thinking about new leadership — understandably so.

Should that happen, McConnell would become one of the more irrelevant members of Congress, a rejected former leader sent to the back benches by members of his own minority party.

Senority? Minority leadership status that earns him a place at the table? Clout to bring home the bacon?

Desperate arguments by an incumbent whose 24 years in Washington have been totally devoted to the accumulation of personal power and who now faces the prospect of seeing some or all of that power slip away even if he wins on Tuesday.